StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Can anyone tell me how he knew ... ?<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
6,981 posts
msg #57194
Ignore karennma
11/29/2007 7:49:16 PM

maxreturn 11/29/2007 3:16:21 PM
My breadth indicators and technical analysis indicate that we may indeed have put in an intermediate term bottom BUT it would be wise to look for confirmation before you go all in on the long side.

Hey Max:
Unfortunately, I was looking for a confirmation on the DOWNSIDE, not the upside. I was soooooooooo wrong!!
Today, I posted the calculation on only ONE of his trades ... JUST ONE, .. EXM, which netted him about $45K in profit on an $11k investment . (see options thread) THAT'S a huge profit in 2 days, IMHO. And EXM wasn't the only one!
So, why "wait" for the confirmation and miss out on such huge gains .. when the indicators are screaming "rock bottom"!
Why not jump in at "the rock bottom" and make 300% .. in 2 days!!.

6,981 posts
msg #57195
Ignore karennma
11/29/2007 7:56:51 PM

Do you guys ever watch "Animal Planet" or National Geographic?
Or have you ever seen a cheetah hunt it's prey?
M4M's rock bottom strategy reminds me of a cheetah.
Cheetahs wait and wait for the right time to strike ... but if they wait just 1 minute too long .... they miss the kill.
I say strike at "rock bottom". Why wait?

745 posts
msg #57196
Ignore maxreturn
11/29/2007 8:55:12 PM

Karen, I haven't examined his trades in detail but from what I've been able to glean is that he tends to purchase out-of-the-money options which are very low probability plays. Your timing has to be impeccable to make money buying these options because it is very easy to lose 100% of your investment unless the position moves pretty quickly in the needed direction. If you consistently lose 100% you had better hit the occasional 10 bagger or you'll be out of the game very quickly. Like I said before....Mary was wrong quite frequently calling bottoms just about every other day during the two must recent declines. I wonder if he's honest enough to share with you that he probably lost 100% of his investment several times?

834 posts
msg #57206
Ignore marine2
11/30/2007 1:08:13 AM

If someone knew the exact bottom of the market each time it slid downward that person would be asking gates and buffett to shine his shoes lol. No one knows or will know the exact bottom every single time. End of speech.

6,362 posts
msg #57210
Ignore TheRumpledOne
11/30/2007 1:47:30 AM

Billionaires don't shine anyone's shoes...LOL!

1,373 posts
msg #57212
Ignore EWZuber
11/30/2007 4:02:26 AM

karennma, if a chart is in a LT downtrend then very often what appears to be rock bottom isn't. Support areas have a high failure rate in downtrends.
I advocate that one wait until there is a show of strength. Even if it is on an intraday time frame, I would say wait for that bounce. Otherwise you are trying to 'catch a falling knife' and that is typically a losing strategy.

Buying at support is fine but only if a stock is in an uptrend. Then support has a much higher success rate.

7 posts
msg #57215
Ignore traderrmr
11/30/2007 8:38:33 AM

Does anyone know where I can get additional information on using RSI (2) as a trading vehicle? Thanks in advance Titan

439 posts
msg #57220
Ignore petrolpeter
11/30/2007 11:41:04 AM

Create and backtest your own custom RSI(2) filters right here.

834 posts
msg #57248
Ignore marine2
11/30/2007 5:15:33 PM

Traderrmr, talk to TheRumpledOne in our forum here. He is the master expert of RSI(2). He has taught many on how and why it works so well.

318 posts
msg #57249
Ignore rtucker
11/30/2007 5:27:38 PM

Fetcher[set{rsi2_opportunity, count(rsi(2) < 5,1)}
set{price_begin_2007,close 230 days ago}

set{diff, close - close 230 days ago}
set{a, diff/close 230 days ago}

add column price_begin_2007
add column price_end_2007
add column 2007_anual_return%
2007_anual_return% is above 50
sort column 7 descending

close > 25
avg vol(90) > 500000
draw rsi2_opportunity

If youre interested, here is a visual display to see when rsi(2) < 5 occured on the best performing stocks in 2007.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Can anyone tell me how he knew ... ?<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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