einok
msg #85820
- Ignore einok |
1/8/2010 1:49:52 PM
Hi Kevin,
Saw your post on
6/2/2009 7:16:25 PM
***Question****
Can you tell me the entry and exit criteria for this filter, both long and short?
Thanks
Erik
However, I prefer the following (thanks to M4M for the concept):
I like this much better - earlier entry into stocks with upward momentum, and earlier exit if they run out of steam. Run this on almost any stock for the past three months - you'll find it to be surprisingly profitable.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #85827
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/8/2010 6:30:15 PM
Gosh, I haven't used this one in a while. Not because it was bad or anything, but I felt that with MACD's you were looking too much in the rear-view mirror.
That why I shifted to Bollinger Bands in August, and more recently to VIX, volume and broader market signals that hopefully are more timely and accurate.
As the the answer to your questions, I would enter and exit at the close on the day the crossover occurred. I actually made good money using this on gold, silver and oil ETFs over the summer.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #85831
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
1/8/2010 8:02:01 PM
Kevin,
Seeing as you said you had luck with the commodities, I applied the above filter to symlist(gld,slv,oil) only.
I looked at a 12 month chart. It looks extremely profitable buying or selling those ETFs on the crossover.
Seems to catch all the swings; and, fairly early at that.
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choymi8828
47 posts
msg #85836
- Ignore choymi8828 |
1/8/2010 9:29:24 PM
Bartune1 / Kevin,
Please provide the location for the filter that Bartune1 mentioned in the earlier message for symlist(gld,slv,oil) only. T
hanks a lot.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #85838
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/8/2010 9:35:09 PM
In review, I would agree. I was using this to time plays on the 2x leveraged ETFs on all three commodities.
The challenge in reviewing the data is that the final value of the MACD is not determined until the end of the week, so you have to be careful in thinking that you get the signal as early as it looks on the charts. More accurate would be to use weekly charts to review, and recognize that you could enter at the end of the week when the MACD signal is triggered. I would try to anticipate the weekly result, and got burned a few times (sounds familiar to many here).
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #85839
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
1/8/2010 9:46:33 PM
choymi8828:
It is the filter in the first post. However, I would rewrite it as follows:
This puts it in weekly timeframe, and lets you see things a bit better.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #85842
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
1/8/2010 10:34:42 PM
Kevin,
I was playing around and used this filter in which you could pin-point a trigger day.
/*BUY or SELL EOD UPON CROSSOVER*/
symlist(gld,slv,oil)
show weekly MACD Histogram(2,3,9)
and draw weekly MACD(2,3) line at 0
chart-time is 12 months
I only have "chart time is 12 months" so I could review the signals that were triggered and commodity price action after the trigger. I now have this saved as filter with "chart-time 2 months" as its easier for me to read and I have already, to my satisfaction, validated the signal.
I will keep an eye on this one and likely take a shot next time one of these triggers.
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mystiq
650 posts
msg #85853
- Ignore mystiq
modified |
1/9/2010 2:45:41 AM
try this:
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #85858
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/9/2010 8:08:17 AM
Now I remember why I stopped using this.
A simple test - does this beat using the standard 12,26,9 settings on the daily MACD? If so, it gives you a small advantage. If not, no need to use it.
Looking at the two MACD's there is no advantage, in fact you are probably at a disadvantage since the true weekly signal is not settled until close on Friday (which means you need to commit ahead of its final setting at some point during the week to match the standard MACD signal).
Going back through the start of 2009, I discovered that you did as well or better using the standard MACD. More risk, less return - THAT is why I started looking elsewhere for guidance.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #85865
- Ignore gmg733 |
1/9/2010 10:13:23 AM
I use MACD(2,3,1) and it is a very reliable signal. Enter at 0 or a cross and a sharp RSI(2) move up. Exit either at MACD divergence or a recross of the 0 line. If you aren't a screen watcher, simply see the close above the EMA(5).
If you are a swing trade, you'll have the MACD confirmation on the day of the confirmation candle usually. Go find a swing trap and see how MACD behaves. If it doesn't go north, you pretty much know it is a swing trap. I am assuming too that you've identified the overall trend. :)
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