StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · PROBABILITY OF FOMC RATE HIKE<< >>Post Follow-up
4,599 posts
msg #131261
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
9/18/2016 5:28:13 PM

Given that the markets seem to move only on the actions of central banks nowadays, this might be a helpful tool for some of us:

Current probability of a rate hike for this month is only 12% right now. Generally that would mean a bump up in the markets unless it has already been priced in, which after last week is probably not the case.

11,571 posts
msg #131263
Ignore johnpaulca
9/18/2016 7:23:54 PM

I guess we keep buying gold until they raise interest rate.

658 posts
msg #131270
Ignore gmg733
9/18/2016 9:25:36 PM

Long gold futures right now. :) I hope it goes to the moon.

1,185 posts
msg #131272
Ignore pthomas215
9/18/2016 9:40:10 PM

I think the FED has lost all credibility, making this potential chaos. They've manipulated to the point where if they don't raise rates soon, it will appear that the economy has to always be in a very low rate environment in order to survive. If they do raise rates soon, there could be 2008 again because the fundamentals are not in place. As one economist put it on wall street week, a true recovery includes a recovery in housing, and we havent seen that yet. My guess is no rate hikes considered until after the election, and then after the election regardless of who wins we will see a 15% correction. Then after some rebound and no political agenda, a rate hike of small proportions. It sure appears as if the FED has no credibility anymore.

1,472 posts
msg #131281
Ignore Mactheriverrat
9/19/2016 2:32:02 AM

I was waiting for in a couple of years QE 427

6,981 posts
msg #131284
Ignore karennma
9/19/2016 8:16:09 AM

282 posts
msg #131272
- pthomas215 9/18/2016 9:40:10 PM
"As one economist put it on wall street week, a true recovery includes a recovery in housing, and we havent seen that yet. "

I have a problem with generalizations like this.
If you live in Wash DC or NYC, the housing market is booming.
After the 2008 debacle, a ton of "million $$" homes were built in my neighborhood. My neighbors and I used to shake our heads, doubting that the houses would ever be bought for the prices that were being asked. Everyday, in 2008-2009, I'd walk by those vacant properties, thinking "what a waste."..
Guess what?
They're all occupied and the RE market is booming.
Massive regentrification is occuring all over the US, i.e., DC, NY, Seattle, San Francisco, Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit ...
Unlike 2008, the people who are buying homes have jobs and can afford to pay their mortgages.

1,185 posts
msg #131289
Ignore pthomas215
9/19/2016 9:46:57 AM

karen, I was referring to nationwide equity boosts of significance. It hasnt. Maybe some select cities have seen increases in equity but not nationwide. credit flow has still been weak from banks, homebuilders are not taking out new permits nationwide like they used to. point being until that comes back, this is not a full recovery imho

658 posts
msg #131291
Ignore gmg733
9/19/2016 9:53:17 AM

I read somewhere the other day that Japan owns a majority of all Japanese companies. While this has gone on for years it probably won't end well. The world as we know it is dying. And no matter how much money you have it will not make a difference.

Trading: think about trading and your counter party risk. If the govt is the counter party it is time to hang it up. You'll be media bait as non American for shorting. Your liquidity will dry up. It will be impossible to make money long or short. We have seen some of this when the Vix was 11 and 12. The govt machines buy and sell to prop up the market. Folks are out looking for pullbacks. Yet it doesn't happen.

There is still money to be made, but this is becoming more and more true. I know some long time traders hanging it up for 2017. Reason. Counter party risk. If you can't get out of the trade then who cares.

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