| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Thanks but a question | << >>Post Follow-up |
| oldsmar52 104 posts msg #30128 - Ignore oldsmar52 |
12/4/2003 8:11:46 AM Thanks to Joe/Chessnut1/Keithray/and Rumpled for your help getting me started but I have a question. I run stocks thru 3 filters and get matches...I then go to the prophet web site and run them thru that. I'm suggested to "toggle between the 1 year/1 week and 3month/daily periods and look for rock-bottom RSI(2), and a Linear Regression that is sloping upwards." I have the stock "ZL" that looks like that in the 1 year period but none of the other periods. My question is: is it a buy signal if I get a match in any ONE of those periods, should it match in ALL of the periods, or what am I ideally looking for there? Thanks for any help and I'll probably have another question later...Frank |
| TheRumpledOne 6,407 posts msg #30131 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/4/2003 10:31:05 AM ======================================================================= TRADING TACTICS as of JULY 02, 2003 ======================================================================= ENTRY - Only trade from list, lower Linear Regression (LR) bounce. RSI(10)<20% or news driven - Look for POSITIVE DIVERGENCE - Must be BELOW upper Bollinger Band on Daily Chart - Look for stocks near the lower Linear Regression on 5 day intraday and/or daily chart - Daytraders wait for 1, 2 or 3 green/white candles in a row after RSI(10)<20% HOLD - If goes up and passes breakeven, 1%, 2% - Wait for RSI and/or LR to peak - For lower LR bounce set at .01 above breakeven, 1%, 2% then wait... EXIT - Set STOP LOSS LIMIT ORDER - Set above BREAKEVEN - NEVER lose a ZERO or FIVE - capture profit/prevent loss (daytraders) - SELL at UPPER LR or RSI >90% - don't be greedy or SELL when the green/white candles turn red/black. STOCKS TO TRADE - Entry at RSI < 3% on Daily Table/Chart - Exit at RSI > 90% on Daily Table/Chart FOCUS ON % NOT $... THE $ WILL COME!! STOCKS TO KEEP IN PORTFOLIO - Load the Lower/Upper LR levels in your alerts first thing in the morning - SELL/BUY back to gain shares - Switch OUT when at UPPER LR on Daily Chart - Look to reenter at 13/26 ema or Lower BB/Lin Reg on Daily Chart Many have asked about what STOP LIMIT they should use. Backtesting has found that a 15% trailing stop works the best. THIS IS FOR SWING TRADERS ONLY… DAYTRADERS TAKE YOUR PROFITS ACCORDING TO ABOVE. Example. Buy at $1.00 per share. Stop Limit set at $.85. If stocks drops to .85 you get stopped out. If stock goes up, move the stop limit order up. If stock reaches $1.20, set the stop limit to $1.02. If stock reaches $1.50 set the stop limit to $1.27. If the stock goes to $2.00, the stop limit would be $1.70. DISCLAIMER We are not liable for any investment decisions by the reader. The information offered is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities. All information obtained is from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Information for the stock observations was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the stock observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. We are not brokers. NO advice is given or implied. This information is for educational purposes ONLY. Nothing should be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or security. We strongly recommend that you consult with a professional broker or financial planner before you buy or sell any stock or security. We believe the information in this publication to be true but assume no responsibility for any incorrect information. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The author may at times hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this document. Investing in securities carries a high degree of risk and you can lose all of your investment money. Past performances do not guarantee future results. Please consult with your own independent tax, business and financial advisors with respect to any investment, including any contemplated investment in any company mentioned. All information contained in this publication must be independently investigated for accuracy. We will NOT be responsible for the consequences of anyone acting on this purely educational material. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,407 posts msg #30132 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/4/2003 10:34:32 AM > > ========================== > > FEAR as of August 27, 2003 > > ========================== > > > > > > I have been telling you guys to FORGET EVERYTHING YOU KNOW. > > > > Today, I realized I left out the most important part.... > > > > FORGET EVERYTHING YOU DO NOT KNOW! > > > > What you don't know is what is going to happen next... ANYTHING CAN > > HAPPEN! > > > > When you let what you don't know influence your buying/selling, > this > > causes you to hesitate. FEAR takes over! > > > > FEAR is what is keeping you from SELLING when you need to sell and > > BUYING when you need to buy... > > > > Fear has been defined as False Expectations Appearing Real. > > > > Have you ever said: > > > > "Everytime I sell it goes up" > > > > "Everytime I buy it goes down" > > > > "I am always on the wrong side of the trade" > > > > I know I have. > > > > It took me almost a year to find out why the above statements > > appeared to be true. One friend said to "find the pattern". > > > > I looked and looked. It wasn't until I was taught the value of > > LINEAR REGRESSION by another friend that I found the answer. > > > > One judgement error usually produces another... > > > > 1) Enter stock at "wrong time" too close to upper Bollinger band > > and/or Upper Lin Reg... > > > > 2) Fail to place stop loss immediately after entry. > > > > So, first a judgement error (rule breaking) and a trading execution > > error (another rule break) > > > > And the stock goes down just like the chart says it will. > > > > This reinforces what you think you know (everytime I buy....) > > > > You refuse to sell the stock because EVERY TIME I SELL IT GOES UP. > > FEAR has you by the you know what!! > > > > So you wait... and it continues to go down.... days go by. > > > > FINALLY YOU CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE SO YOU SELL. > > > > 3) Fail to do what the chart tells you to do. > > > > Of course the stock goes up because... EVERYTIME I SELL IT GOES UP. > > > > Wrong, the stock went up because it was probably near the lower > > Bollinger band and/or lower Lin Reg and you should have been buying! > > > > YOU HAVE TO TRUST YOUR TRADING TOOLS AND TACTICS > > > > Here they are again: > > > > >====================================================================== > > = > > from THE TRADING ZONE, Mark Douglas > > > > page 121 > > > > 1) Anything can happen > > > > 2) You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to > > make money. > > > > 3) There is a random distribution between the wins and losses for > any > > given set of variables that define an edge. > > > > 4) An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher > probability > > of one thing happining over another. > > > > 5) Every moment in the market is unique. > > > > page 185 > > > > I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE: > > > > 1) I objectively indentify my edges. > > > > 2) I predefine the risk of every trade. > > > > 3) I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the > > trade. > > > > 4) I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation. > > > > 5) I pay myself as the market makes money available to me. > > > > 6) I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors. > > > > 7) I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of > > consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them. > > > > > ====================================================================== > > FOLLOW THESE STOCK TIPS FOR SUCCESSFUL DAYTRADING > > > > BUY LOW SELL HIGH > > > > TAKING SMALL PROFITS = HUGE GAINS > > > > USE STOP LOSSES (7-10%) > > > > BE AWARE THAT MARKETS ARE MOVED BY GREED & FEAR > > > > ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE > > > > USE THE STOCK PICKS AS A WATCH LIST DON'T JUST BUY BLINDLY > > > > DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH YOUR STOCKS (have "short affairs" with them) > > > > > > > ====================================================================== > > = > > Trading Rules > > > ====================================================================== > > = > > > > 1. Plan your trades. Trade your plan > > > > 2. Keep records of your trading results. > > > > 3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose. > > > > 4. Don't take the market home. > > > > 5. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news. > > > > 6. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low. > > > > 7. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for > studying > > the markets. > > > > 8. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of > others. > > > > 9. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, > and > > rational action. > > > > 10. Limit your losses - use stops ! ( mental imo ) > > > > 11. Never Cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it! > > > > 12. Place the stop at the time you make your trade. > > > > 13. Never get into the market because you are anxious because of > > waiting. > > > > 14. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often. > > > > 15. Losses make the trader studious - not profits. Take advantage > of > > every loss to improve your knowledge of market action. > > > > 16. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but > > self - control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. > You > > are the most important element in the equation for success. > > > > 17. Always discipline yourself by following a pre - determined set > of > > rules. > > > > 18. Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a > > bull market has taken a three months to build. > > > > 19. Don't ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop > > yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak > > profit point. > > > > 20. You must have a program, you must know your program, and you > must > > follow your program. > > > > 21. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over > losses > > always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be > > profitable. > > > > 22. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more > then > > 50% of them again in the market. > > > > 23. The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your > stress > > point. > > > > 24. The difference between winners and losers isn't so much native > > ability as it is discipline excercised in avoiding mistakes. > > > > 25. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead. > > > > 26. Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the > > golden touch do not talk about their success. > > > > 27. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too > > high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long. > > > > 28. Accept failure as a step towards victory. > > > > 29. Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a > > profit? Forget it even quicker! Don't let ego and greed inhibit > clear > > thinking and hard work. > > > > 30. One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, > > another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through the > > open door. > > > > 31. The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to > > the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all > forces > > that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When > he > > ignores this, he is lost and doomed. > > > > 32. It's much easier to put on a trade than to take it off. > > > > 33. If a market doesn't do what you think it should do, get out. > > > > 34. Beware of large positions that can control your emotions. Don't > > be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing > > your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts. > > > > 35. Never add to a losing position. > > > > 36. Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms. > > > > 37. You must believe in yourself and your judgment if you expect to > > make a living at this game. > > > > 38. In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate > what > > the next big movement is going to be - up or down. > > > > 39. A loss never bothers me after i take it. I forget it overnight. > > But being wrong and not taking the loss - that is what does the > > damage to the pocket book and to the soul. > > > > 40. Never volunteer advice and never brag of winnings. > > > > 41. Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling > > what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss. > > > > 42. Standing aside is a position. > > > > 43. It is better to be more interested in the market's reaction to > > new information that in the piece of news itself. > > > > 44. If you don't know who you are , the markets are an expensive > > place to find out. > > > > 45. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human > behavior, > > nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. > > Mark that word - Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base > > moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what > does > > happen. > > > > 46. Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking > your > > profit too soon. Don't torment yourself if a trade continues > winning > > without you. Chances are it won't continue long. If it does, > console > > yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early > reserved > > the gains that you would have otherwise lost. > > > > 47. When the ship starts to sink, don't pray - jump. > > > > 48. Lose your opinion - not your money. > > > > 49. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that > works > > for you. > > > ====================================================================== > > ======= > > > > > > KEY TIMES DURING THE MARKET DAY FOR TRADERS > > As you will see, there are key times that we look for during the > > trading day as being pivotal. Most days, the action centers around > > those times. Other times of the day are more suitable for a trip to > > the gas station or lawn bowling; Here are the pivot times we look > at > > for signs of life: (All times are EST) > > > > 9:30-9:50...Approx first 20 minutes of trading day. Time when > > beginning traders lose money on whipsaws and experienced ones > capture > > quick profits. Avoid if you are the former. > > > > 9:50-10:10..Oftimes a period of reversal for early morning trades. > > Market begins to settle into reality as early morning traders take > > their profits and swing traders look for opportunities. > > > > 10:10 to 10:25...usually a continuation of whatever trend was set > up > > in last period. > > > > 10:25-10:35 ...A decision point for traders. Many times a turning > > point reversal or accelerated continuation of previous setup. > > > > 11:15-2:00...go bowling...this is the "dangerous time of day" . > > Traders lunch out and scalpers try to push the indices around to > make > > a quarter here or there. > > > > 2:00-2:30...market usually begins to pick up steam: > > > > 2:30-3:00...called the 3:00 bubble, even on weak days can show > > strength into the next pivot point > > > > 3:05..if last period was just a bubble, will begin to break here, > > Otherwise can be a good pivot point. > > > > 3:25-3:35...for trending days, this is the time when trends tend to > > play out > > > > 3:40-3:45...can see reversals or acceleration into the close. > Reason > > is that all floor traders have their MOC orders in and everyone has > a > > pretty good idea where the closing range will be. > > > > :: Henry Ford :: > > > ====================================================================== > > = > > > > TRADING RULES AND DISCIPLINES > > By Brad (Iceman039) > > > > > > 1) Always write down your trading rules and disciplines; never > assume > > you know them all. A written set of rules and disciplines show you > > are committed to this business. You can add to these rules as you > > trade and develop strategies. > > > > 2) Always refer to and follow your "pre-determined" rules and > > disciplines. Don't just write these down, refer to them regularly > > and "live" by them. Be disciplined - the market pays you to be > > disciplined. > > > > 3) Treat trading as if it is your own business. You are the > President > > and C.E.O. of your own company. This is real money; it's your > money - > > protect your interests at all times. > > > > 4) Always use "stop-loses" and stick to them. Know your stop-lose > > before you enter a trade and put it into play. > > > > 5) Never let a winning trade turn into a losing trade. Profits are > > profits no matter how small and they all add up in the end. > > Remember, "no one ever lost money taking a profit". > > > > 6) Never let a day-trade turn into a bad investment. It may be big > > enough to take you right out of the trading business and see you > > sitting on the sidelines. DON'T BECOME A "BAG-HOLDER" ! > > > > 7) A true day-trader is "flat" at the end of each day. Be "clean > and > > green". > > > > 8) If you make 3 or more bad trades in a row - STOP TRADING. Go > back > > to "paper trading". Once you have made 3 or more successful trades > > then re-enter the "real money" trades with a lower than usual share > > amount. Earn the right to trade larger share quantities. > > > > 9) Leave your emotions out of the trading business. Your emotions > > will never effect the direction of a stock and its value. If you > lose > > at a trade except your loses "gracefully" and move on. Don't waste > > time "stewing" over the trade or you may miss out on the next > > opportunity. > > > > 10) Do not take a trade just to trade because you're anxious to get > > back in. Always know why you're going into a trade before you buy > > into it. Plan your trades and trade your plans. > > > > 11) Never trade a stock with average volume less than 500,000 > shares > > per day. > > > > 12) Do not chase a stock, forget it and move on. The opportunities > > are endless and the market will always be there. > > > > 13) Don't expect to make it all happen on one trade. Take a series > of > > small profits and at the end of the day they'll all add up. You are > > more than likely to "lose it all" on one trade then "make it all" > on > > one trade. > > > > 14)If you're not in the right state of mind to trade today because > > of "outside influences" then take the day off and come back with a > > clean head. Remember, it's your business and you're the boss. > > > > 15) Trade within a "trader friendly environment" which is > comfortable > > for you and offers minimum distractions. > > > > 16) HAVE FUN ! If you don't enjoy trading then stop and find > another > > line of work. > > > > > ====================================================================== > > = > > > > Optionetics Articles > > > > MARKET INSIGHT: Money Management > > > > http://www.optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=8558 > > > > By Jody Osborne, Optionetics.com > > 6/19/2003 7:30:00 AM > > > > > > We can find a lot of information about trading in books and on the > > Web, but most of it details how to pick stocks and what strategies > > that are available using options. However, one very important > aspect > > of trading is often overlooked and this is money management. I > often > > get the question, "Why did such and such stock move against us when > > everything was pointing at a good trade?" Trading is not an exact > > science; if it were, there would not be a market because everyone > > would know how to win. In sports, a team can often play a great > game > > and still lose. The same thing can occur in trading. We can have > all > > the odds in our favor, yet the stock will move against us. > > > > Despite the fact that many trades will lose money, if we manage our > > trades appropriately, we can still make nice profits. In fact, we > can > > make money trading even if our winning percentage is below 50 > > percent. In just a moment, I am going to discuss how this is > > possible. However, before we go into some money management > > techniques, we need to realize that we are going to have losing > > trades. Even the best baseball team doesn't win every game. In > fact, > > a 60 percent winning percentage is considered great in the sport. > > This is similar to the options game, where a person who wins 60 > > percent of their trades should come out well ahead of the game. > > > > Too many traders enter a trade without any idea of when they will > get > > out. Not only should we have a profit exit set, but we should also > > have a loss target set. With some strategies, we might be willing > to > > risk the entire capital used, while others we might have a mental > > stop loss in place. Regardless of where your targets reside, it is > > important to have them ahead of entering the trade. This is because > > emotion will dominate our trading decisions if we don't have an > idea > > of what to do ahead of time. > > > > Now, just to show that we don't have to be right every trade, let's > > take a look at a table showing the profits made using various > winning > > percentages. There is an old saying that states "Let your profits > run > > and cut your losses short." It is this basis that gives us the > > following table. > > > > Winning % Ave Win Tot Win Ave Loss Tot Loss # of Trades > Profit > > > > 40% $500 $4,000 $250 $3,000 20 > > $1,000 > > 50% $500 $5,000 $250 $2,500 20 > > $2,500 > > 60% $500 $6,000 $250 $2,000 20 $4,000 > > > > > > Table 1: Profits Using Various Winning Percentages > > > > Notice that by having a 2-to-1 win to loss ratio, we would have > > profits even if we only win 40 percent of the time. It is also > > important that we allocate an equal amount of capital to each > trade. > > Many traders will put large amounts of money into trades they think > > are the best. However, if this trade doesn't pan out, it can erase > > the gains made from other trades. > > > > There are various strategies to manage your trading account, but > the > > key is to have a plan. The idea is to "plan your trade and trade > your > > plan." This means knowing ahead of time where our exits lay and > > keeping a good record of the trades we have made in the past. > Though > > we can't win every time, we can learn to manage our money better so > > that the losses aren't a problem for the long-term performance of > our > > trading account. > > > > > > Jody Osborne > > Senior Writer & Options Strategist > > Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site > > Visit Jody's Forum > > > > > ====================================================================== > > = > > > > > > > > DISCLAIMER > > > > We are not liable for any investment decisions by the reader. The > > information offered is not to be construed as an offer to buy or > sell > > any securities. All information obtained is from sources deemed to > be > > reliable but is not guaranteed. Information for the stock > > observations was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but > > we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any > > results from the use of the information. Your use of the stock > > observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole > > responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and > usefulness > > of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your > > broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any > > securities mentioned herein. > > > > We are not brokers. NO advice is given or implied. This information > > is for educational purposes ONLY. Nothing should be considered a > > recommendation to buy or sell any stock or security. We strongly > > recommend that you consult with a professional broker or financial > > planner before you buy or sell any stock or security. We believe > the > > information in this publication to be true but assume no > > responsibility for any incorrect information. This is not a > > solicitation to buy or sell any security. The author may at times > > hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this document. > > Investing in securities carries a high degree of risk and you can > > lose all of your investment money. Past performances do not > guarantee > > future results. Please consult with your own independent tax, > > business and financial advisors with respect to any investment, > > including any contemplated investment in any company mentioned. All > > information contained in this publication must be independently > > investigated for accuracy. We will NOT be responsible for the > > consequences of anyone acting on this purely educational material. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30133 - Ignore EWZuber |
12/4/2003 12:57:23 PM There is one point to this strategy that I do not agree with and that is to set stop losses at ( -7 ~ 10% ). This is too arbitrary. This strategy could possibly set one up for the ' it always goes up after I sell' syndrome. By the time a stock drops that far it is probably oversold and will likely rise again before long to test old support as resistance. Rather than use an arbitrary percentage for a stop loss, I would recommend that a stop be used that is dictated by technical indicators. This would include, Moving averages, trendlines and price support and overbought/oversold indicators. These support areas need to be identified before the trade is entered. This way the plan is made and the risk is defined ( as well as it can be ). For example, AMCC today. This stock is testing a 2 month supporting trendline @ $6.30. No need to let this drop 7 ~ 10% ( if it does ) before calling it a bad trade. Taking a position right on this trendline allows one the opportunity to cut losses to less than ( -2% ) by closing the position if it breaks trendline support while overbought. If the stock is oversold and breaks support the odds favor that the stock will at least rise to test old support as resistance and you are given another chance to sell at your stop loss. The next support below AMCCs supporting trendline is price support @ $6 and the 50 & 100 DMAs @ $5.80. A loss of ( -10% ) would put our stop at about $5.67. There is no technical significants about $5.67. It is arbitrary and, IMO, and has no pertenance to the technical picture. It makes no sense to buy using technicals and sell using an arbitrary percentage. Also it makes no sense, considering the low price of trades, to lose so much capitol when the downside risk can be limited to just a couple percent by buying at support while the stock is oversold or at the break of the resistance trendline which will put your entry ( or add on to your position ) just a tad above support. JMHO |
| TheRumpledOne 6,407 posts msg #30169 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/6/2003 10:50:44 PM EWZuber: I understand the reason you disagree. But not everyone does such a thorough job in their research. My tactics allow traders to trade and win. They may lose a battle or two but they win the war. Some people can't sit at the computer all day. So they buy and place a stop. Setting a tight stop at/near support/resistance will most likely get you wiggled out. But ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE BUT HOW YOU TRADE IT. I was trading FNSR this week. I used support and resistance levels on Friday to enter at $3.04 (should have bought another 1000 shares or so at $3.03). So I am NOT disagreeing. But there's more than one way to skin a cat. MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,407 posts msg #30191 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/7/2003 5:22:40 PM http://www.optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=8558 |
| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Thanks but a question | << >>Post Follow-up |
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