BarTune1
441 posts
msg #86020
- Ignore BarTune1 |
1/12/2010 12:36:49 PM
Well Kevin, its turned out to be a very good day. The VIX BB method strikes again.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #86033
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/12/2010 1:44:11 PM
This approach really does nail it - when the dollar or VIX triggers a signal, best to take the trade.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #86039
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
1/12/2010 3:02:05 PM
Yeah, I would have to say its my #1 indicator Kevin.
By the way, I took a decent sized position in the SCO early this morning based on the weekly MACD(2,3,9) system you mentioned. I applied it only to the commodities OIL, GOLD and SILVER.
Seeing as OIL crossed over this morning, I took the double short ETF.
Got in at 12.95 and it is trading around 13.30 now ....
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #86042
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/12/2010 3:23:17 PM
VIX Stochastics are now indicating that it should go up over the next few days. But I notice that it has pulled back from about +10% to only about +6.6% right now. Not sure of that means much, as the signal is pretty clear.
I'm conflicted on jumping in - my Holy Trinity scan still says stay long. Hedge with some BGZ - maybe ...
Need to decide soon.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #86043
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/12/2010 3:57:26 PM
Volume and volatility screens, along with the Holy Trinity on the NYSE, still say go long. I'll stand pat for now.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #86142
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
1/13/2010 11:41:47 AM
Well Kev, my short OIL and GOLD plays are working ok.
Your A/D and VIX oscillators seem to be indicating a short signal on the market now too. However, the readings appear to be somewhat delayed.
I added to BGZ at 13.93 with a relatively tight stop.
******
So much for that theory .... may look at this again end of day.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #86671
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/20/2010 3:09:38 PM
Hopefully you are still holding your BGZ (it's at 16.04 right now, up 15%).
The indicators are not updated intraday, so today they still all read positive. Will not see the real impact of the market action until about 9PM when the data is corrected and finalized.
The VIX was above the UBB, but has pulled back at the market recovers a bit (from -205 to it's current -140). That means two things:
1. No confirmed BUY signal.
2. More room to go higher before triggering anything.
Also, the VIX is now below its +10% rise of earlier in the day. If it closed up 10% or more, statistics argue for a green day tomorrow. Where it is now, there is no statisitcal edge to play.
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einok
msg #86700
- Ignore einok |
1/20/2010 9:44:29 PM
Kevin_in_GA and BarTune1
i see guys use bollinger band (10,2) for the vix. does this translate to 10% if it closes above or below the bollinger band? if it closes above the upper bband, do you start entering long positions and if it closes below the lower bband do you start entering short positions? any other info appreciated too.
Thanks,
Erik
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #86714
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/21/2010 9:22:41 AM
The Bollinger Bands represent standard deviations from the mean price action, not a set percentage. The Bollinger Bands(10,2) means using a 10 period MA and 2 SD.
In most cases when the VIX closes below the lower BB, it indicates a short term correction is imminent. I did a statistical analysis of the over the past several years (posted in the other VIX thread) and it is a pretty solid indicator for a market move down over the next few days. Same thing for closing above - a solid BUY signal.
Occasionally, this signal continues for a day or two longer (or in the case of October 2008, it can run for days on end). Most times, however, you can use this with a high level of confidence to make a trade.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #86725
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/21/2010 11:26:19 AM
VIX is sending a clear signal at the moment - it is WAAAY above its Upper BB. If it closes there, get yourself some BGU and TNA pronto (check just before the close).
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