shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #133881
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/25/2017 3:49:56 PM
How do you find the Vxv level at Vix central. Is that the 3rd month? What's the level now?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133882
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/25/2017 5:54:43 PM
It's at the bottom of the first page, titled "Month 7 to 4 Contango" - currently at 11.24% with the VIX contango at 10.67%. The fact that the 7-4 contango level is higher right now is (to me) a cautionary signal but not enough to close out my XIV trade. If the VIX contango gets below 5% that is a red flag for me.
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #133883
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/25/2017 6:21:21 PM
Sold Ugaz, Uso, Uco, hold a small amount of Tvix. Thinking of shorting Xiv.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133889
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/26/2017 10:27:03 AM
So your position is to buy TVIX when the first number in the "month 7 to 4 contango" is below 5%?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133892
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/26/2017 11:59:03 AM
I would only buy TVIX if the VIX were in backwardation (contango less than 0%). Otherwise I usually short it, which has been a very reliable trade.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133893
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/26/2017 12:06:32 PM
Short vix when contango is below 5% and buy TVIX when in backwardation, got it. What is your preference of TVIX over UVXY?
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #133894
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
1/26/2017 1:19:25 PM
Go long Vix under zero, not short.
This goes hand in hand with what I've been saying, that shorting Vix is very reliable and going long Vix is a gamble. One thing I will say is, if Xiv starts to drop, it will almost 100% hit Weekly Acceleration Band(21) midline, and in my o. reverse back up. If not, look for a bear market, though I think won't happen for 3-5 years.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133896
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/26/2017 1:57:07 PM
You are right, meant to type to short XIV and not VIX
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133898
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/26/2017 3:55:04 PM
Short vix when contango is below 5% and buy TVIX when in backwardation, got it. What is your preference of TVIX over UVXY?
No -
Contango above 5% - Long XIV or short TVIX
Contango between 5% and 0% - WAIT. The market is not sending a clear signal and there is no need to jump the gun.
Contango below 0% - Long TVIX, and watch it carefully. Probably good to use trailing stop to lock in what profits you can, since this is usually a short term mean reverting trade.
TVIX and UVXY are functionally the same.
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #133899
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/26/2017 4:18:41 PM
And if you do play Vix long in a bull market, it should only be for 5 days.
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