StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · 5% A WEEK FILTER (BASED ON TRO'S CROCK POT)<< 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 ... 35 >>Post Follow-up
rkurtz76
13 posts
msg #82166
Ignore rkurtz76
10/31/2009 7:04:00 AM

With the market turning I'll probably give serious consideration to a short this week.

Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82167
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/31/2009 8:01:43 AM


SHORT FILTER


Fetcher[

/*MEASURE THE DIFFERENCE FROM WEEKLY OPEN TO WEEKLY LOW*/
set{wloop, weekly open - weekly low}
set{Short_Profit, wloop / weekly low }

/*DETERMINE THE FREQUENCY THAT 5% IS ACHIEVED OVER MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES*/
set{5_1wk, count(Short_Profit > .05,1)}
set{5_4wk, count(Short_Profit > .05,4)}
set{5_13wk, count(Short_Profit > .05,13)}

/*APPLY WEIGHTING FACTORS*/
set{var1,5_4wk*0.5} /*WEIGHT 4 WK AVERAGE AT 2X*/
set{var2,5_13wk*0.07692} /*WEIGHT 13 WK AVERAGE AT 1X*/

/*CREATE A WEIGHTED SUMMATION OF STOCK PERFORMANCE (MAX SCORE = 3)*/
set{reward,var1+var2}

/*DETERMINE THE RISK OF TRIPPING A 10% STOP LOSS*/
set{wloss, weekly high - weekly open}
set{max_loss, wloss / weekly open}

/*DETERMINE THE FREQUENCY THAT A 10% STOP LOSS IS TRIPPED OVER MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES*/
set{loss_1wk, count(max_loss > .10,1)}
set{loss_4wk, count(max_loss > .10,4)}
set{loss_13wk, count(max_loss > .10,13)}

/*APPLY WEIGHTING FACTORS*/
set{var11,loss_4wk*0.5} /*WEIGHT 4 WK AVERAGE AT 2X*/
set{var21,loss_13wk*0.07692} /*WEIGHT 13 WK AVERAGE AT 1X*/

/*CREATE A WEIGHTED SUMMATION OF RISK (MAX SCORE = 3)*/
set{risk,var11+var21}
set{performance,reward/risk}

add column performance
add column reward {reward}
add column risk {risk}
add column 5_4wk {4 wk reward}
add column loss_4wk {4 wk risk}
add column 5_13wk {13 wk reward}
add column loss_13wk {13 wk risk}

/*SCREEN FOR THE STRONGEST CANDIDATES*/
weekly open is above 1
average volume(90) above 500000
and reward is greater than 2.8

and draw 5_1wk
and draw loss_1wk on plot 5_1wk
and do not draw reward

sort column 6 descending

chart-display is weekly
]




Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82189
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
10/31/2009 3:41:26 PM

SHORT OPTIONS

S - Sprint Corp FON Group 0.00 2.92 (0.00 for performance means no 10% stop loss would have been hit in the last 13 weeks)
INO - Genetronics Biomedi... 7.60 2.92
SOMX - SOMAXON PHARMACEUTIC 5.43 2.92


NEPH - NEPHROS INC 1.30 3.04 2.92
CHLN - CHINA HOUSING & LAND 4.00 2.92
BONU - BioNeutral Group Inc 1.90 2.92
CVM - CEL-SCI Corp 1.05 2.81 2.92

LONG OPTIONS

GKK - GRAMERCY CAPITAL CP 31.49 2.92
APWR - A-Power Energy Gene... 3.52 2.85
BQI - Oilsands Quest 4.35 2.85


ZLC - Zale Corp 3.52 2.85 (avoid this like the plague - not likely to hit 5% after last week's SEC revelation)


rkurtz76
13 posts
msg #82268
Ignore rkurtz76
11/2/2009 9:22:06 AM

I'll be shorting SWHC this week. Not on the 5% list but has consistently lost 4%.

Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82450
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/4/2009 9:33:35 PM

So here it is, mid-week .. how are this week's long and short picks doing?

SHORT OPTIONS

S - Sprint Corp FON Group
Weekly Open: 3.02
Weekly Low: 2.78
% Gain/Loss: -7.95% (HIT TARGET)

INO - Genetronics Biomedical
Weekly Open: 1.04
Weekly Low: 1.03
% Gain/Loss: currently at 1.09, up 4.8%. Will need to drop to 0.99 to hit target (-9.8%). NOT LIKELY

SOMX - SOMAXON PHARMACEUTIC
Weekly Open: 2.44
Weekly Low: 2.21
% Gain/Loss: -9.4% (HIT TARGET)




LONG OPTIONS

GKK - GRAMERCY CAPITAL CP
Weekly Open: 3.15
Weekly High: 3.49
% Gain/Loss: +10.79% (HIT TARGET)

APWR - A-Power Energy
Weekly Open: 11.00
Weekly High: 11.85
% Gain/Loss: +7.73% (HIT TARGET)

BQI - Oilsands Quest
Weekly Open: 1.26
Weekly High: 1.27
% Gain/Loss: currently at 1.18, down 6.35%. Will need to rise to 1.33 to hit target (+12.7%). NOT LIKELY



ZLC - Zale Corp
Weekly Open: 4.72
Weekly High: 5.31
% Gain/Loss: +12.5% (HIT TARGET) My bad call on this. Oh well.


kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #82476
Ignore kmcninvest
11/5/2009 10:37:29 AM

Kevin:

Your short filter is different from your long filter. You added the the 10% stop trigger but I don't know how you would know if it was triggered before the 5% was hit or after. I just reversed your long filter and had this list:

SOMX
NEPH
EDAP
CVM
BONU
RPTP
CHLN
INO

As of today all but INO hit 5%.

Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82477
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/5/2009 10:53:43 AM

Yeah, but if you run this filter mid-week, it factors in all of the stocks that ALREADY hit their 5% target, which is not legit. You wouldn't know this at the open on Monday (that's why EDAP shows up in your list but not the one I published over the weekend).

kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #82480
Ignore kmcninvest
11/5/2009 11:06:48 AM

ok, got it.

duke56468
683 posts
msg #82502
Ignore duke56468
11/5/2009 3:16:19 PM

Kevin
Maybe I missed it, but how are you setting your stops so you get more than the target of 5% gain if you are not right at the computer all the time?

Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82515
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
11/5/2009 5:43:06 PM

Well ... it's pretty straightforward.

Buy at the open. Whatever the open price is (which may not be what YOU got it for), multiply by 1.05, and set a limit order to sell at that price. Make the order GTC (good til cancelled) which will keep it in place all week. If the price hits that value, at ANY time during the week, the order will execute and sell your shares at this price.

Set it and forget it. You do not need to be at the computer watching the stock (although many of us do that anyway).

NOTE: Just noticed that you said "greater than 5%" ... I don't shoot for greater than this, I shoot for 5% since that's what the statistics are calculating. Hope that helps.

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · 5% A WEEK FILTER (BASED ON TRO'S CROCK POT)<< 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 ... 35 >>Post Follow-up

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