StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · 5% A WEEK FILTER (BASED ON TRO'S CROCK POT)<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 35 >>Post Follow-up
Kevin_in_GA
4,547 posts
msg #83306
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/21/2009 9:08:30 AM

ERX took a hit, as did all of the 3x bulls this week. It got VERY close to its target, but not enough.

This week, the filter gave 3 out of 4. If you had played all four you would have been up 1.25% for the week.

Next week's plays are:


APWR
performance 4.00
reward 2.92
risk 0.73

ZLC
performance 2.24
reward 2.92
risk 1.31

PCX
performance 12.33
reward 2.85
risk 0.23

TEX
performance 4.93
reward 2.85
risk 0.58

OPXA
performance 2.39
reward 2.85
risk 1.19

QTM
performance >100
reward 2.77
risk 0.00

PWER
performance 36.00
reward 2.77
risk 0.08

KOG
performance 12.00
reward 2.77
risk 0.23

IO
performance 2.25
reward 2.77
risk 1.23

I added some additional plays here by reducing the reward threshold to 2.75 (from 2.8). Just in case people want to spread their risk across more than 4 or 5 plays for the week.

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #83308
Ignore Eman93
11/21/2009 9:25:26 AM

I almost bought some IO at the close....

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #83309
Ignore Eman93
11/21/2009 9:30:11 AM

Keep up the good work...... this is really looking good...

duke56468
683 posts
msg #83314
Ignore duke56468
11/21/2009 11:40:21 AM

Kevin Thanks for all your work here. I'm still trying to learn, but it looks like ERX gapped down on FRI and a 10% stop loss would have turned into an 18% loss wiping out your gains and then some. Unless you had a stop-limit order in that case it would still be open. Am I looking at this right?

Kevin_in_GA
4,547 posts
msg #83315
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
11/21/2009 12:03:49 PM

Look at the filter. It is structured for a 5% profit stop and a 10% stop loss. Both should be put in place at the time of purchase. You would not have taken the full hit on Friday.

Which, by the way, was not a hit - a substantial dividend was paid out and the stock price adjusted to reflect this. You would have recieved a big check if you held through Friday, which would have mostly offset the stock price drop.

duke56468
683 posts
msg #83316
Ignore duke56468
11/21/2009 1:02:50 PM

A buy at the open Mon. was 46.50, a 10% stop-loss was set at 41.85. It never hit that all week until the gap down and you would have sold at the open Fri morning at 39.36, a little over an 18% loss. I couldn't find anything about the dividend you speek of. The dividend is normaly paid in Dec. How much was that dividend, and what was the ex-dividend date? Still trying to learn.

Kevin_in_GA
4,547 posts
msg #83317
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
11/21/2009 1:11:03 PM

http://www.direxionshares.com/etfs?distributions;funds=erx,typ,mwj,drn,ery,fas,tmf,tyh,edc,mwn,bgu,tza,edz,tna,tmv,drv,faz,dpk,tyd,bgz,dzk,tyo

ERX dividend paid on 11/20 at $4.65 per share. Your stop loss order would have been triggered at the Friday open price, but you also would have gotten the check.

This does raise a good point - do not simply buy a stock without researching it. These leveraged ETFs pay substantial dividends when they are profitable, but you need to know when these dividend distributions are scheduled.

duke56468
683 posts
msg #83318
Ignore duke56468
11/21/2009 1:13:12 PM

Thanks I see it now , learning all the time.

Kevin_in_GA
4,547 posts
msg #83319
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/21/2009 1:55:20 PM

You would have been stopped out, but for only a 5.5% loss when the dividend is included.

In that case, your actual profit for the week is (5 + 5 + 5 - 5.5)/4 = 2.37%

duke56468
683 posts
msg #83321
Ignore duke56468
11/21/2009 3:37:53 PM

Kevin,
Does direxion warn somewhere when these (out of the normal quarterly) distributions are about to take place?

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · 5% A WEEK FILTER (BASED ON TRO'S CROCK POT)<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 35 >>Post Follow-up

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