duke56468
683 posts
msg #82523
- Ignore duke56468 |
11/5/2009 7:16:41 PM
I may be seeing something wrong (it wouldn't be the first time) but for GKK If you bought at 3.15 your sell stop would be 3.3075 the stock hit a high of 3.34 in the first 2 min and you would have sold at a 5% gain not 10%. Am I doing this wrong?
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rkurtz76
13 posts
msg #82552
- Ignore rkurtz76 |
11/6/2009 8:53:20 AM
All we care about is that it hit 5%. Once the stock hits 5% we sell. Kevin was just posting what the stock did this week. It's great that it hit 10% but that wouldn't matter for us since we sold at 5%.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #82603
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/6/2009 4:14:05 PM
That's right. At 5% you are cashing out. if it goes higher, so what? You hit your goal. Be happy and get ready for next week.
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duke56468
683 posts
msg #82610
- Ignore duke56468 |
11/6/2009 7:29:24 PM
If we hit 2 winners at 5% sell-stop and 1 loser at 10% stop-loss we lose money with the transaction costs. We have to do better than 66% win rate to come out ahead. Am I looking at this wrong?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #82616
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/6/2009 10:38:14 PM
No, your math is correct. One can invest across more than three stocks - I provided a list of seven this wek to go short, and 4 to go long. Given how well many stocks did this week, the long list will be bigger once the weekend screen is complete.
Remember to only run this screen over the weekened, to keep the data consistent.
As of this evening, it looks like this for the long picks:
Symbol performance reward risk
APWR 4.00 2.92 0.73
GKK 1.15 2.92 2.54
ZLC 4.68 2.85 0.81
ERX4.80 2.77 0.58
TEX 4.24 2.77 0.65
DRV 6.00 2.77 0.46
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83073
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/14/2009 6:18:45 PM
LONG PICKS FOR THIS WEEK (A FAMILIAR CREW BY NOW):
Symbol
APWR
ZLC
ERX
TEX
These have done quite well over the past month. Given that this week is OpEx, I would guess that they will continue to deliver.
Kevin
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83160
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/16/2009 9:47:15 PM
ZLC and TEX already hit their 5% targets. ERX just missed it today. APWR is trading up only slightly.
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sync
15 posts
msg #83179
- Ignore sync
modified |
11/17/2009 11:20:36 AM
You mentioned the filter gives more weight to recent activity. When the market turns bearish how long will it take for the long filter to reflect that?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83184
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/17/2009 1:09:01 PM
Almost immediately - if a stock misses this week, it drops off the radar for a while. However, there still is a historical component that will be in play.
I would not use this as any measure of the market's sentiment. It is a statistical play only.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83190
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/17/2009 5:13:53 PM
APWR exploded today - another 5% hit for the filter. Only ERX left for the week.
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