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alf44
2,025 posts
msg #53814
Ignore alf44
8/3/2007 4:52:27 PM

Let us not forget...the SEC has rather quietly done away with the "uptick rule" !!!

Haven't heard much about this from CNBS (et al...) !!!


FYI:

The playing field HAS changed people...be advised !!!

This will almost without question affect (downside) volatility !!!


Regards,

alf44


---------------------------------------------------

AND...speaking of Cramer...he said yesterday (with respect to the recent abolition of the Uptick Rule by the SEC) in his Stop Trading segment with Erin Burnett...

...We can't trust the pricing on stocks. I (ie. Cramer) don't trust the quotes on my trading machine. I compare right now to 1987 when the markets were in total disarray. On July 6th the uptick rule was suspended and now bear raids are back in vogue. "Market Players" can drive any stock down without the uptick rule...

-----------------------------------------------------

Did ya happen to see the bloodbath in BZH (Beazer Homes) on Wednesday as it was taken down over 40% in about 30 minutes ? It did recover somewhat but...it was pretty brutal.


Regards,

alf44


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #53815
Ignore nikoschopen
8/3/2007 4:55:52 PM

Here are my otherwise useless predictions for the major indexes in the near term:
  • If the market continues down on its slippery slope, we could see the Dow move down as low as 12,795 (its February high). Should it surpass that mark, it can potentially come all the way down to 11,940 (March low).
  • The S&P already tumbled below its February high, so it's a matter of time before touching down on 1,365 (March low).
  • The Nasdaq also officially crossed its February high today and will very likely come down to 2,340 (March low).
Beware that even when the market takes a free-fall, you will encounter bumps on the road that will make you stumble and fall. Good luck!

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #53817
Ignore maxreturn
8/3/2007 4:57:39 PM

Niko...you mean you haven't enjoyed any profits on the short side during this decline? I wish I could say I'm still in my put position on the SPY but I bailed on the last strong down day approaching the 200 ema. Watch price action very closely now that price has pierced the EMA. IF another rally is coming it should find support in the form of a congestion or double bottom. If the ema 200 rolls over and price starts finding resistance at the ema...katie bar the doors.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #53818
Ignore nikoschopen
8/3/2007 5:05:24 PM

@Alfie

Ure absolutely right BUT the market was pretty brutal even when the "uptick rule" was in place (circa 2000-02 bear market). Nevertheless, there's no doubt that this will lead to higher short-selling (and, consequently, more frequent short-squeezes).

I need not make another refrain on what I think of Cramer. He has his die-hard followers and, well, so do I. LOL

@maxreturn

My account is up more than 20% since the air was taken out of the market, thanks to my daytrading skill. ;)

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #53819
Ignore nikoschopen
modified
8/3/2007 5:33:11 PM

BTW, has anyone heard from Mary4Money lately? I wonder what's up her sleeves?

Obviously, she's still very optimistic about the market and have gone on a buying spree to scoop up every option calls available with her paper account. Well, you can read everything her prosaic mind has to say about the market here.

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #53823
Ignore maxreturn
8/3/2007 8:12:39 PM

Niko, aint it great that you can make money so many different ways? Of course, you can just as easily lose it. But my point is...I was totally out of my element day trading. Nearly wiped out my account trying it. On the other hand, swing trading has been very kind to me. On the other hand you excel at daytrading. Bully for you!

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #53824
Ignore nikoschopen
8/3/2007 9:41:15 PM

Max, that's a great point. Everybody has one's own strength and weakness, and I too have made a long winded turn before realizing what my strength was. However, on strong momentum days like the ones we had the previous week, I don't mind holding a position for an extended period of time. I did in fact hold a position for up to 3 days last week. But such an occurrence doesn't happen very often.

But I agree with you that a correct swing trade has a far greater windfall than a day trade and I'm currently working on how best to mix the two approaches. If you have a good idea of ure own, please share the wealth. LOL

miketranz
671 posts
msg #53826
Ignore miketranz
8/3/2007 10:13:56 PM

Its been a very tough market for swing trading.Its been a while since I held a position for more than two days.I'm buying one day and selling the open the next.No follow through action at all.As far as short selling,you need your head examined to hold a short position overnight in this market.No matter how bad it looks,the next day your squeezed out of nowhere.Been there done that,which brings me to the conclusion,I'll just sit this one out for a while......

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #53829
Ignore nikoschopen
8/4/2007 12:34:19 AM

Just wanna share what Mary4Money has to say about the recent meltdown:

90% of the stocks in qqqq- in great fiancial shape
3-Aug-07 08:35 pm

best in years- qqqq only going down in sympathy- this sub prime thing is bull@#$% scare tactics-85% of home loans are fixed rate which has nothing to do with subprime stuff- only the arm loans are effected- home builder stocks are 10 times in financial shape than they were in the 1991 housing bubble-also 55% of the stocks in market are either foreign stocks or thier finances are are directly related to the emerging nations economies-their plants are their cause labor is cheap

Sentiment: Strong Buy

msummer2007
129 posts
msg #53831
Ignore msummer2007
8/4/2007 1:34:08 AM

Niko Good call on the market. Took your advice and stayed away, I still have my shirt and pants. Monday should be a very interesting day. Maxreturn your swing trading idea is a sound one. Better to catch the larger moves, than sweat the daily swings. I'm happy you nailed your put's, I think in the short future you will be buying these again.

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