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compound_gains
152 posts
msg #109749
Ignore compound_gains
1/1/2013 12:15:47 PM

I live traded a variation of the filter through December with these results...
LSE +9%
JRCC +8%
ENZN -8%
CBMX +15%
NEPT +15%
FOLD -1%

The results above include commissions. I traded an initial $5,000 and reinvested any gains. Looks too good to be true, but I first manually back-tested over 18 months (that's as far as I could go with SF) and those kinds of results held up. In the back-testing and live trading the entry point has been critical to success. It has become a day trading exercise for me because I need to monitor candidates and if a stock is triggered, then I'm using a 15-minute window to try and guesstimate an entry point. Right now I'm only holding for one day (the day after entry) and my exit is either: (a) 8% loss; (b) 15% gain; or (c) near end of day if neither (a) or (b) hit. I don't set a hard stop loss...experience has taught me that that's the kiss of death, so that adds to the need to watch price movement.

I have no idea what the future success rate of this might be...automated back-testing is useless IMO...but what the heck, if you can come remotely close to December's performance, what's there to complain about? That being said, I don't know what impact a larger equity base ($30,000 perhaps?) might have on liquidity and effective trading.


Kevin_in_GA
4,539 posts
msg #109750
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
1/1/2013 12:49:20 PM

You did not pull up UNXL or HLF in your filter? Each of these should have shown up as they did in a range of filter variations I looked at. UNXL and HLF both made good coin after a frightening drop.

dcsnowden
52 posts
msg #109751
Ignore dcsnowden
1/1/2013 1:03:00 PM

Been papertrading this pretty religiously since mid first week of December...first theoretical buy was 12/5/12....EDU I think. Closed out completely...coincidentily...last day of the month/year with GBX monday morning around 10 AM and then ALXA later on that afternoon. A total of 12 different stocks were bought...13 actual buys, since I doubled-up on HLF...more on that and CBMX later. Out of the 12...3 losers...9 winners....with a gross profit of 5.2% (before commissions). Not bad considering all that was going on this December in particular. This was strickly mechanical, with purchase and sell orders placed the night before and left alone. If sell order was not completed the next day...the sell price was adjusted (always lower) to reflect the new RSI(2) = 50 projected value for the next day (THX Cheese). I noticed that as time went by, profit potential shrank and loss potential grew...so the sooner the rubber band snaps back...the better. Now I know what we all ideally want is a system with a decent return and preferably NO emotional envolvement....but I should mention, I am just about 100% certain I would never have risked real money on CBMX and 80 to 90% sure that I would have also avoided HLF. CBMX representing the highest % winner and HLF the greatest % loser. The short term charts (3-4 months) tells the story on CBMX, while a 1 Year daily for HLF shows the trigger day blowing thru a double bottom ( 5/15/12 and 11/29/12) by about $6 or 12 to 15% after failing an attempt to stay above the ma(200) the last week of July. All of these things pointed to a weak stock that I would've thought twice about with ANY system. So there's the dilemma (damn it all). We could probably find fault with any of the charts and all the numerous tales and horror stories hidden inside the highs and lows and closing values..... if we choose to....since it seems we can't....without the risk of some emotional intrusion...what we're left with......IS THE SYSTEM. .....

HOPE EVERYONE HAS A WONDERFUL...AND PROFITABLE NEW YEAR...DCS

dcsnowden
52 posts
msg #109752
Ignore dcsnowden
1/1/2013 1:28:16 PM

K
A nice profit.... on HLF:?? You must have drastically changed the original filter parameters if there was any profit in that one. According to the rules...I show a buy at 35.04 on the 20th and a second optional purchase the next day at 31.66 (you mention Connors says to double up after 5% further drop...I waited for 6%... not one of the hard rules I know) resulting in an average of 33.27. It finally bottomed out somewhere around 24 and when RSI(2) hit 50 the sell price was 28.25....what did you do differently???

DCS

compound_gains
152 posts
msg #109753
Ignore compound_gains
1/1/2013 1:58:48 PM

"You did not pull up UNXL or HLF in your filter? Each of these should have shown up as they did in a range of filter variations I looked at. UNXL and HLF both made good coin after a frightening drop."
===========================

Neither met the filter variations I was using in December. I should also say that I entered ALXA on 24 December. If I followed my rules I would have been out on 26 December with a small loss. As it was, there was nothing happening in the way of other triggers and ALXA was floating along so I just held. Right now I'm essentially breakeven on that trade and I'll be out tomorrow one way or the other.

Kevin_in_GA
4,539 posts
msg #109754
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
1/1/2013 2:39:44 PM

K
A nice profit.... on HLF:?? You must have drastically changed the original filter parameters if there was any profit in that one. According to the rules...I show a buy at 35.04 on the 20th and a second optional purchase the next day at 31.66 (you mention Connors says to double up after 5% further drop...I waited for 6%... not one of the hard rules I know) resulting in an average of 33.27. It finally bottomed out somewhere around 24 and when RSI(2) hit 50 the sell price was 28.25....what did you do differently???

++++++++++++++

Robotic trading did not enter on HLF initially because it did not cross back above the trigger on the first two signals (at least that's why I think it did not buy in). Using Prodigio it showed a modest gain yesterday so I closed it out.

Kevin_in_GA
4,539 posts
msg #109755
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
1/1/2013 2:44:42 PM

@compound_gains: Please consider posting your filter - no one can really reply to your comments or add anything of value without knowing what you are using.

compound_gains
152 posts
msg #109756
Ignore compound_gains
1/1/2013 3:22:21 PM


This script shows what the candidates would have been for any given day and what, if any, triggers there were.
Fetcher[
not otcbb
not etf

close 1 day ago between 1 and 10

close 1 day ago below day position(0.2,1) 1 day ago
volume 1 day ago above 1000000
adx(5) 1 day ago above 40
set{cnt, count(low more than 9.9% below close 1 day ago,1)}
add column cnt

sort column 5 descending

set{lw1, low - close 1 day ago}
set{lw2, lw1 / close 1 day ago}
set{lw, lw2 * 100}
add column lw
]



dcsnowden
52 posts
msg #109795
Ignore dcsnowden
1/2/2013 12:47:18 PM

Kevin-in-GA

Oh yes ..that's right...your using Prodigio to set up those conditional entries.That explains your lower entry price. Looking at a 15 min. chart, I see that the price crossed above the 25.63 buy trigger around 10.30 on the 24th after bottoming out around 24 and change. That Prodigio feature sure paid off in this instance....certainly worth looking into, if we're going to try and keep this hands-free..... and also, THX for all your efforts.


DCS

gmg733
618 posts
msg #109816
Ignore gmg733
1/2/2013 8:09:54 PM

I am having a problem following your entry criteria. Are you trading the stocks that hit the cnt variable? Then what is your intraday signal?

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