StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Importance of longer term analysis<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54173
Ignore nikoschopen
8/18/2007 12:23:28 AM

niko...If you're referring to me as one of the "self labelled techies" you couldn't be more off base.

No, Max, I'm afraid that's not what I meant. It wasn't meant as a personal attack on anyone in particular. Instead, what I had in mind was how convoluted the technical analysis as a whole has become over the years with all these self-entitled gurus brandishing their own holy grail to boot. So my apology for any misunderstanding. But I think ure mistaken to say my posts are "Not ONE complimentary post. All negative". But, then again, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Cheers.

:)

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #54182
Ignore maxreturn
8/18/2007 2:09:35 PM

Niko...the comment about lack of complimentary posts was not directed towards you. At first I was amazed that only three people bothered to read my post. But I guess I shouldn't be suprised. Very few people seem to be interested in the bigger picture...to get some context for their next trade. IMHO this is one of the most critical mistakes made by the losing trader.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54186
Ignore nikoschopen
8/18/2007 2:42:06 PM

Max, ure post shouldn't be construed as unimportant or uninteresting just because you didn't get much feedback. I'm sure thousands of people have read, digested, and are currently making use of it, although it's a bit late to implement it in their trading.

Moreover, some amount of criticism IMHO is needed to carry out any meaningful dialogue. So don't be put off by "negative" comments. There was once a poster here at SF who couldn't handle anything but an adulation from others, remember? Don't fall into that same trap.

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #54194
Ignore maxreturn
8/18/2007 9:44:54 PM

Niko, PLEASE...that's a little insulting to be lumped into the great one's category. No adulation needed or wanted. But it is very frustrating to me that ALL of the responses to what I thought was a useful topic did not discuss the merits of that topic or expand on it. One poster debates whether or not there was really any divergence. Another wants to spark a debate on the merits of using indicators. And then your original post which again, had nothing to do with the topic at hand. Can you understand now why some may reluctant to post something they may consider to be useful to others? Why bother when these are the types of responses you get?

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54196
Ignore nikoschopen
8/18/2007 10:28:26 PM

I share ure frustration. But as I wrote above, it's worth noting that this thread was created only 2 days ago when the market bottomed. While the logic behind ure argument might be valid and sound, ure timing is not. Had you made ure appearance before all this financial debacle took place, there's no question that you would have by now been inducted into the StockFetcher hall of fame (along with this Svarmi, as I'm known to some, hehe).

Niagara
49 posts
msg #54197
Ignore Niagara
modified
8/18/2007 11:07:29 PM



This is the countrywide chart. Note that it has been a very cyclic stock, with alot of ups and downs. There is almost nothing from the stock chart which would have predicted that this down would be the bit one in foresight, only hindsight.

The purchasing of puts has been pretty common, and predictable given the climb in the market this year, and in previous years. The question is where does it go from here.

Any comments. I know that niko is bearish, TRO, and niko only day trade and try and follow the market after it appears to have committed for the day, but for those of us who can not day trade probably the best thing is stand aside.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54207
Ignore nikoschopen
8/19/2007 2:43:24 PM

There is almost nothing from the stock chart which would have predicted that this down would be the bit one in foresight, only hindsight.

I dunno about you, but I clearly see the head & shoulders pattern at the far right edge prior to its steep descent. An astute trader would have taken advantage of that by going short as soon as the right shoulder was forming. Even if you missed the opportunity to sell short at the right shoulder, you were given another chance when the neckline was breached. These are not predictions, but a simple rules of engagement based on technical analysis in its pure form.

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #54210
Ignore maxreturn
8/19/2007 7:36:49 PM

Greetings Niagra. I see plenty of useful information on this chart when combining it with good old fashioned support and resistance along with industry group analysis. First, it is clear to me that in July 2005 a well defined horizontal channel formed roughly between 30-40. Noticed that each time price rallied into resistance and then sold off you could have profited nicely with puts/or shorting. Conversely, as price declined into the support area and then rallied you could profited on the long side. Second, had you been paying attention to industry group relative strength on May 18 you would have seen that the Financials were the second poorest performing industry relative to the SPX. While you could not possibly forecast the extent of any subsequent downmove, the odds would favor that this stock may fall further than most during a broad market decline or if the stock broke out to the downside.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54211
Ignore nikoschopen
8/19/2007 8:49:41 PM

The question now is whether the market will retest its previous high before making its plunge in earnest, as was the case back in 2000.

S&P eMini futures (ES monthly)


Niagara
49 posts
msg #54212
Ignore Niagara
8/19/2007 8:59:15 PM

Thank you Niko and Max for your astute analysis. I am still learning, and of course the turn on the 18th was expected, and playable.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Importance of longer term analysis<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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