StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Importance of longer term analysis<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54282
Ignore nikoschopen
8/22/2007 5:56:46 PM

It's hard to bank on anything these days, but here's a reassuring article for us bears.

Fed rate cut? Don't bank on it

Investors betting a Fed rate cut is a lock could end up getting badly burned.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
August 22 2007: 2:11 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Investors who are counting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sometime in the next month may end up badly disappointed.

The credit crunch of the past month has convinced many on Wall Street that a cut in the central bank's key short-term interest rate is basically a lock.

Stocks jumped Friday after the Fed announced a surprise cut in the little used discount rate that the central bank charges on loans made directly to banks - and again on Tuesday on bets the Fed will cut its other key rate, the fed funds rate, by the central bank's next meeting on Sept. 18, if not beforehand. The fed funds rate is the more important rate since it affects many consumer loans.

But a number of economists believe that the Fed will hold rates steady next month.

"The Fed would like to do everything possible under the sun but make a cut in the fed funds rate," said Bernard Baumohl, an economist and author of the textbook "The Secrets of Economic Indicators."

The Fed had raised rates 17 times over two years to get the fed funds rate to 5.25 percent in an effort to keep the economy from overheating and letting prices get out of hand.


johnpaulca
10,097 posts
msg #54300
Ignore johnpaulca
8/23/2007 3:27:08 PM

Must be Thursday...market is down. Real estate is taking a pounding, glad I shorted yesterday. I have been buying on Tuesday and Thursday and selling into rally days, it works...for now.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54301
Ignore nikoschopen
8/23/2007 3:41:03 PM

The motto for the bears is "take no prisoners" and any possibility of truce between the bulls and the bears remain precarious at best for now.

johnpaulca
10,097 posts
msg #54398
Ignore johnpaulca
8/27/2007 3:54:54 PM

Call me crazy, I bought Countrywide @19.77 this afternoon...stop @19.49

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54402
Ignore nikoschopen
8/27/2007 4:15:19 PM

Yup, ure definitely insane. But I did things far more crazier than that this past week, so welcome to the club!

johnpaulca
10,097 posts
msg #54412
Ignore johnpaulca
8/28/2007 11:25:40 AM

cfc gunned down this morning. Buy day (Tuesday) for me. Cover my real estate stocks yesterday, today would have been better (greed). Ya have to be nimble and quick to make any money in this environment...play both sides, don't try to guess market direction and please don't listen to the talking heads on C?B?

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54414
Ignore nikoschopen
8/28/2007 12:09:25 PM

John, in this game, timing is everything. Sometimes you need to be nimble and exit ure trades in quick procession. Other times, it's worth exercising ure stoic discipline and ride out the turbulence. In essence, ure buying time until the rescue arrives to bail you out. For example, we're currently in a bear land. Had you went short last week, you would be in the sea of red. But instead of selling out, you carefully vie for time (aka calculated risk) in the hopes that the bears would come to ure rescue.

johnpaulca
10,097 posts
msg #54433
Ignore johnpaulca
8/29/2007 10:22:45 AM

Sweeeet buys yesterday, picked up grmn, cf, bcg, fpl. Sold this morning for a nice profit. Looking to buy on Thursday...should find some nice shorts today.

Nikko...thanks for the sage advice, great having you on this site...peace.

johnpaulca
10,097 posts
msg #54468
Ignore johnpaulca
8/31/2007 9:56:06 AM

I finally got cfc...bought 1000 shares yesterday up over 5% this morning...yes, I was insane yesterday.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Importance of longer term analysis<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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