StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Importance of longer term analysis<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
Niagara
49 posts
msg #54213
Ignore Niagara
modified
8/19/2007 9:18:30 PM


The question is where would it fall back to. A fib ABC retracement would have the DOW fall back to between 9800 and 11500.



maxreturn
745 posts
msg #54215
Ignore maxreturn
8/20/2007 9:53:09 AM

"The question now is whether the market will retest its previous high before making its plunge in earnest, as was the case back in 2000."

Niko, It looks to me like the market is trying to find a short/intermediate term bottom basis the weekly and daily charts. This week will be very important. If the market can rally through the ema200 and find support I think a retest of the highs is very likely.

karennma
6,386 posts
msg #54216
Ignore karennma
8/20/2007 10:27:28 AM

Maxreturn and Niagara:
Hey Max:
You were complaining that only 3 people responded to your original post ...
Sometimes people just read and THINK and don't post a response.
Some folks post and DON'T think.
Niagara:
Thanks for your chart, but I don't see your fib retracement numbers.
And I don't understand why you're using a 12 year chart.


karennma
6,386 posts
msg #54218
Ignore karennma
8/20/2007 10:34:37 AM

and what are those little blue squares that kinda look like dots?


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54219
Ignore nikoschopen
8/20/2007 10:49:27 AM

Niko, It looks to me like the market is trying to find a short/intermediate term bottom basis the weekly and daily charts. This week will be very important. If the market can rally through the ema200 and find support I think a retest of the highs is very likely.

I concur with ure assessment. However, note that we're practically on a borrowed time with the subprime noose wrapped around our neck. Before long the specter of subprime will again rear its ugly head.

Niagara
49 posts
msg #54249
Ignore Niagara
modified
8/21/2007 1:52:44 AM

Karenma, first the blue dots:
This Swing overlay, as we have it in StockShareV2, was following the methods of swing trading that Tom O'Brien uses. StockShareV2 allows the user to view available swing points with a mouse click. Swings will be visually displayed immediately. The swing points are displayed as blue boxes while the colored lines reference previous highs or lows. The swing points are analyzed using a proprietary Algorithm to measure Breaks or Tests. The user can customize to a preferred test percentage.

Blue Box - The blue box can not be displayed until after the swing is made. A swing high needs a lower high or a swing low needs a higher low to follow before it can be displayed with a blue box. Breaks obviously can be shown since it is using data from the past.
A Swing High - This is when the highest recent price and the highest recent volume happen on the same day.
A Swing Low - This is when the lowest recent price and the highest recent volume happen on the same day.

Second, the twelve year chart,
To demonstrate previous cycles, you have to backup, kind of like taking a picture of a group to get everybody in.

Third, the fib numbers. The blue areas reflect something called confluence, and ABC patterns. The C of an ABC usually falls within the middle fib zone of numbers. January 95 was the beginning of the uptrend which ended in the beginning of 2000. The C was correctly predicted in the middle of the lower blue bar. Now, if Jan 03 is the A, and about now is the B, then the C should be somewhere within the upper blue band.

Fourth, I hope you were not referring to me as someone who posts, but does not think. You give the impression from this comment, and the "celebrity among us" post that you are contemptuous in nature. My sister's name is Karen, and she can be contemptuous at times. Maybe it's in the name.

karennma
6,386 posts
msg #54254
Ignore karennma
8/21/2007 9:24:08 AM

Niagara
Niagara
modified 8/20/2007 10:52:44 PM
Karenma, first the blue dots:
Fourth, I hope you were not referring to me as someone who posts, but does not think. You give the impression from this comment, and the "celebrity among us" post that you are contemptuous in nature. My sister's name is Karen, and she can be contemptuous at times. Maybe it's in the name.
========================================================
========================================================
Hey Niagara:
Thanks for your explanation regarding the chart, which I will have to study more (since you probably know by now, I'm not the "brightest bulb in the room").
In regards to posting and not thinking ... I'm surprised you thought I was referring to you.
Actually, I wasn't referring to a specific person.
In fact, I had NO ONE in mind. It was suppose to be a"rhyme", but didn't come out that way.
How about this ...
Some people read posts, and just think ...
Some people post and don't think.
Anyway, if it doesn't rhyme, and the whole thing sucks .. then "fuggedaboutit". LOL!
I would NEVER intentionally insult people on this board .. the very people I'm trying to learn from? NEVER!!!
Contemptuous?
I can be. I'm in a very contemptuous situation right now, so perhaps that comes out in my writing.
But, to keep this message brief, my "$#itty attitude" has more to do with the markets and my personal situation, and not the people on this board.
In fact, I have kept my posts in check, in an attempt to avoid being percieved as such.
My apologies to you and anyone else I may have offended.
It was completely unintentional.
Thanks for the charts, and your thoughts.
:>)



Niagara
49 posts
msg #54255
Ignore Niagara
8/21/2007 10:16:16 AM

Karenma,
Thank you for your reply. I am sorry about your personal situation, and hope it is resolved positively. I am new to self dircted investing, and have enjoyed the stockfetcher forum, and the stockfetcher service. I played with software and practice sites for a year, and for a half year have had a small online account. So far I have not given myself any reason to give up my mutual fund accounts.
The chart above was created with stockshare software. I happened upon it in the beginning, and I found myself coming back to it. The creators of it are students of this Tom OBrien, and some of its features reflect his ideas. The C of the first abc is where the A of the second abc would be located.

johnpaulca
10,088 posts
msg #54280
Ignore johnpaulca
8/22/2007 3:28:40 PM

I feel the noose tightening around the neck...choke. I went short on real estate...again. Got killed on BCSI up 25% today...ouch. Thursday has been horrible for the markets unless ure short. What's your crystal ball telling you guys???

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54281
Ignore nikoschopen
8/22/2007 4:32:36 PM

Uhm, isn't BCSI a security software company? Be that as it may, I was pretty impressed by the stubborn resilience displayed by the bulls today. Several times throughout the day, the bears raided the unsuspecting bulls to no avail. Every time the bulls came charging right back. But guess what? All three index averages are sitting pretty at the 50% Fib retracement level. Personally, I'm still bearish but, as they say, it's futile to fight the tape. Good luck.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Importance of longer term analysis<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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