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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61081
Ignore EWZuber
4/4/2008 11:31:57 AM

And there it goes!

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61088
Ignore EWZuber
4/4/2008 1:19:26 PM

COMP Hourly Chart is now oscillating in an overbought condition, scaling the 10 HR.MA.
Thats as bullish as it gets within this time frame.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #61095
Ignore nikoschopen
4/4/2008 2:36:31 PM

Nice call. In addition, I would like to add that today is about as high as it will ever get for some time. There should be another selling cycle come either Monday or Tuesday of next week.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61106
Ignore EWZuber
4/4/2008 5:02:39 PM

There could be some minor distribution but thats all I'm expecting. COMP is riding the 10 and 15 DMA's now. Those are the most bullish EOD MAs to be used as support.
I suspect the COMP will not close any day below the 15 DMA next week.
Todays close gave us that Weekly Chart accumulation phase I have been looking for.
Along with that we will get shorter and shallower distribution phases in all shorter time frames.
Although April is still young, the Monthly Chart is looking bullish as well with a Dragonfly Doji confirming the 50 MO.MA as support with a follow up in April.
Possibly an inverted H&S pattern forming.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #61116
Ignore nikoschopen
4/4/2008 10:59:37 PM

Thus far, the S&P moved in locksteps with the previous bear market. If the past is any indication, which I would be a fool not to believe, we could very likely see a 20% drop between now and the mid-month of June.

BTW I appreciate ure careful analysis.

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #61119
Ignore maxreturn
4/5/2008 8:05:59 AM

LT Bear market is not over until the market moves up with conviction above the EMA200 and more importantly, starts finding support above it. That being said, I believe in the very short term I agree with Niko that we're due for a pullback. Then I expect a challenge of the EMA200 and the 139-140 area basis SPY which is a VERY strong resistance area. Should get interesting real soon.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61131
Ignore EWZuber
modified
4/5/2008 5:43:02 PM

max, from my perspective this is not a bear market. It is only a correction or a LT Monthly Chart distribution phase.
To me a bear market is when the index or stock falls below the 50 MO.MA.
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I suspect that any pullback next week will be only to test support at the 10 or 15 DMAs because there is now a bullish synergy between the Daily and Weekly charts both being in accumulation phases of their cycles.
At this time Iit looks like a pullback to the 25 DMA is not in the cards, IMO.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61166
Ignore EWZuber
4/6/2008 9:30:43 PM

Watching SPIR, OCTL for a move up on Monday.

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #61169
Ignore maxreturn
modified
4/6/2008 10:17:15 PM

Zub, pull up a monthly chart with the EMA12 applied. Very similar thing happening now as in the bear market of 2000-2003. Once the EMA12 rolled over all rallies to the EMA12 were sold. Like I said before I agree there is enough momentum behind this move to go higher possibly for the next several weeks. But until price breaks above this barrier and dips bounce off it we're in a LT bear trend.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61189
Ignore EWZuber
4/7/2008 1:17:37 PM

max, I agree that the possibility does exist but for different reasons.
I took a look at the longer term Quarterly Charts recently and they are still firmly in a distribution phase with no indication as of yet that the 15 QTR.MA will hold as support by the end of June.

This tells me that this LT distribution may have more downside and I'll have to be prepared and watch for a break of pattern support on shorter term charts that will indicate the resumption of distribution.


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Just a Heads Up lV<< 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 ... 41 >>Post Follow-up

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