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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61239
Ignore EWZuber
modified
4/8/2008 4:23:08 PM

Weekly Chart accumulation phase appears to be having the calculated affect on the Daily Chart.
Stochastics have -Xover but so far pattern support is intact!
This indicates CONSOLIDATION NOT DISTRIBUTION.
Exactly what I was expecting.
Daily Chart formed a Dragonfly Doji (mildly bullish) on successively lower selling volume.
Will be watching for a bounce up off the COMP 15 DMA within the next two sessions.

The COMP 5m/10MA was confirmed as support just in time to close the HC above the 50 HR.MA.
The 10HR.MA is dropping slowly and I suspect this development with the 5m/10MA could lead to confirming the 10 HR.MA as support and bring the index to a resolution to this consolidation pattern to the upside.

Made a couple bucks on QLD today as it broke 5m chart pattern support at ~2:00. Closed when 1m chart confirmed the 1m/10MA as support at ~2:25.
Could have made a ton more entering earlier but with only two daytrades left for the next 5 days it tends to make me very cautious.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #61259
Ignore nikoschopen
4/9/2008 2:50:50 PM

Why not just short COMP until mid-June as I proposed earlier? It might actually help get you out of that dreaded PDT thang altogether. Anyway, I enjoy ure take on the market.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61264
Ignore EWZuber
4/9/2008 4:36:43 PM

nikoschopen, my problem is that I have great difficulty watching gains erode on a profitable position.
I don't like holding a short position while the chart is in an accumulation phase, even if it's rising to just test resistance.
I could have held my QID yesterday but would have had to watch almost all my profits evaporate and not be sure that the position wouldn't actually go underwater before possibly returning to profitability.
I have a need to keep the majority of my money in the moment.
I don't trust overnight gaps either even if it's just a knee jerk reaction with no staying power.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61265
Ignore EWZuber
4/9/2008 4:54:46 PM

Today confirmed Daily Chart distribution but in this area there is substantial support just below todays close.
COMP did test the 15 DMA as support today and bounced up on heavy volume and it looks like a gap up tomorrow is likely.
Hourly Chart is attempting a new accumulation phase but is unconfirmed at this time.
A move higher tomorrow would fit the idea of what I have been expecting however judging from todays move it might have a tough time.
Sell volume still well below ADV.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61284
Ignore EWZuber
4/10/2008 11:45:32 AM

And there's the bounce up off of the COMP 15 DMA.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #61287
Ignore nikoschopen
4/10/2008 12:11:16 PM

I wouldn't count on that just yet. ;^)

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61297
Ignore EWZuber
modified
4/10/2008 2:32:34 PM

I'm almost certain that the COMP 10 HR.MA will hold as support. It is in an uptrend now, slowly approaching price.
Hourly Chart pattern support at ~ 2352.
If that is violated at the top of the hour (the close of that hours candlestick)with a stochastic -Xover then the Hourly Chart will go into a distribution phase. Until then we have a consolidation pattern.

What we are seeing right now is the COMP riding down on the only closeby MA support. That is the 25 HR.MA which is still in a downtrend and so is very poor support.
It needs to contact a MA that is in an uptrend, thats where the 10 HR.MA should come in handy.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61303
Ignore EWZuber
4/10/2008 4:06:13 PM

In the final minutes of the session the COMP bounced up off of the 10 HR.MA to close at Hourly Chart pattern support. This maintains the HC consolidation pattern and avoids an HC distribution phase.

Tomorrow I suspect it will be driven down a bit to lure in some short sellers, then bounce up off the 10 HR.MA.
IMO

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61331
Ignore EWZuber
4/10/2008 8:33:07 PM

Now I'm not certain about this but I suspect that tomorrow we will see a major burning of the shorts.
The Hourly Chart pattern support held into the close today. So that means no HC distribution phase = bullish.
They even let it drop into the close just to bounce up off of the 10 HR.MA at the last minute to regain HC support to the exact number and no more.
I suspect this was intentional. To create an illusion of weakness and not reveal their hand to anyone not watching closely.
Many retail traders will be expecting weakness particularly on a Friday. Typically during simuiltaneous accumulation phases that EoW sentiment changes.



nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #61341
Ignore nikoschopen
4/11/2008 1:16:08 AM

Actually, my understanding is just the opposite. For the last three sessions, the market was taken down in the afternoon only to bounce back up just prior to the close. However, such a bait can only work so much.

At any rate, based on what's happened in the prio bear market, here's what I think will happen over the next few days. Just don't kill me if I'm wrong.

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