klynn55
747 posts
msg #153332
- Ignore klynn55 |
7/30/2020 6:11:10 AM
even the oil companies admit to global warming and their complicity, yet the anti science right wingers, fox, right wing talk show hosts, and the republican party embrace antiscience. last night trump hosted large gatherings , they were hugely maskless. why ? to oppose , rather than govern. science says wear the mask
for others. trump and the right embrace a witch doctor who mentions demons and aliens , and by the way says don't wear a mask.
|
karennma
8,057 posts
msg #153343
- Ignore karennma
modified |
7/31/2020 8:16:00 PM
"the deepest recession in American history ..."
U.S. GDP plunges record 32.9% in 2nd Quarter ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-suffers-titanic-329-plunge-in-2nd-quarter-gdp-shows-and-points-to-drawn-out-recovery-2020-07-30
Geesh!
Scroll down and look at that 2nd chart.
|
karennma
8,057 posts
msg #153344
- Ignore karennma |
7/31/2020 8:20:18 PM
‘A massive welfare economy’ - huge federal aid prevents an even steeper GDP collapse ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-massive-welfare-economy---huge-federal-aid-prevents-an-even-steeper-gdp-collapse-2020-07-30?mod=article_inline
"Huge" federal aid?
Ha! That's OVER!
More peeps gonna be livin' in tents.
|
Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #153354
- Ignore Cheese |
8/1/2020 10:55:57 PM
karennma,
Only price pays, so I've been learning from my lesson of going to cash early.
But I have no regret and I think you are right.
This may be a good read for you, too
The Fed treats investors like ‘foolish children’ by propping up stocks despite ‘dreadful fundamentals,’ hedge-fund heavy Seth Klarman says
Published: Aug. 1, 2020
His hedge-fund currently keeps 31% in cash.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-treats-investors-like-foolish-children-by-propping-up-stocks-despite-dreadful-fundamentals-hedge-fund-heavy-seth-klarman-says-2020-07-30
Happy investing.
|
karennma
8,057 posts
msg #153355
- Ignore karennma |
8/2/2020 9:08:10 AM
@ Cheese,
Quote:
"As of June 30, Baupost kept 31% of its portfolio in cash, Bloomberg News reported, that’s up from 26% in the month prior, due to the fund’s unloading of a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities ... "
Helloooo ...?
Can you say 2008?
|
Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #153361
- Ignore Cheese
modified |
8/2/2020 2:11:00 PM
karennma,
Here are some important thoughts from some real investment pros
Several years ago, when Dr Ben Bernanke started QE as Fed Chair,
George Soros predicted that we would be seeing a global currency race to the bottom.
That prediction has come true and continued.
Now, according to some investment bankers, if the stock market is viewed as a store of value
and not as an instrument for generating growth and profits, then the market can march higher.
karen, with your keen interests in macro economics, you'd be in a good position
to assess the three risks:
1. Rising risk of a recession.
The definition of a recession is 3 consecutive quarters of contraction.
We've officially just had one.
Some past studies have shown when the S&P500 remained stretched above its long-term
moving averages, a recession would ensue.
Recession favors bonds, not stocks.
2. Asset inflation
Asset inflation is different from consumer price index, cost-pushed, or demand-lead inflations.
Asset inflation is the result of government action.
At the July 29 FOMC press conference, Chair Powell reaffirmed support for asset purchases,
and bluntly said that there is little the Fed can do for people who rely solely on interest income,
minimal incorme, or fixed income.
3. NIRP
Some Fed followers believe that ZIRP will likely lead to NIRP
To them, NIRP in America seems inevitable.
Happy investing and retirement
|
karennma
8,057 posts
msg #153369
- Ignore karennma |
8/2/2020 7:20:11 PM
We've been in a recession for quite a while.
The original date of this article was "Mar 21, 2020" !
It was updated March 26, 2020
"https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/21/21188541/coronavirus-news-recession-economy-unemployment-stock-market-jobs-gdp
You don't have to wait 3 consecutive quarters ....
You can NOT shut down an economy (like the US) without having a recession.
|
karennma
8,057 posts
msg #153388
- Ignore karennma
modified |
8/3/2020 2:48:21 PM
Re:
"You don't have to wait 3 consecutive quarters ....
You can NOT shut down an economy (like the US) without having a recession."
============================================================
And, I might add - Trump and Powell knew this months ago; thus their Fed Policy.
The corona flu was just an excuse to let everything collapse .. but prevent the market from collapse.
Why blame yourself, if you can blame "the virus".
One of my neighbors works "off the grid". He does everything in cash only and NEVER uses banks.
He stored all his money in his house. But what does it matter now? It's only paper.
I'm not fooling with this crap.
By the time it's over, we may all be on street corners shaking tin cups.
|
Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #153390
- Ignore Cheese |
8/3/2020 4:32:19 PM
I think the risks to markets will increase with many uncertainties as we get closer to election.
|
ron22
255 posts
msg #153395
- Ignore ron22 |
8/3/2020 10:26:56 PM
I agree that there is a major downside risk to the markets going forward. Do you think that putting a small portion of capital into a gold etf is a good hedge?
|