Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150939
- Ignore Cheese |
2/26/2020 9:44:09 PM
Ed,
Thank you for sharing your notes.
I'm cheering for your exploring pursuit !
While I was helping Robert kossvet on the other thread, the name CODX also popped up.
So, perhaps graftonian's WIDTHs filter may be of value to your pursuit as well.
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nibor100
1,010 posts
msg #150949
- Ignore nibor100 |
2/27/2020 2:28:15 PM
@cheese,
I'll check the width's filter out, though it seems similar to a guppy separation filter I did a while back for somebody...I'll need to check my history.
FYI, VE's Short-Sell Filter as is, finds 3 of the 4 Kossvet stocks, without using any moving averages at all and would find the other if the price limit was lowered below $3 for each day that filter is run.
Thanks,
Ed S.
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JoeyVinyl
125 posts
msg #150958
- Ignore JoeyVinyl |
2/27/2020 7:32:37 PM
@nibor100
I'm with Cheese here. I spent some time trying to see if I could make it a long filter too, but haven't had enough time (and probably don't have enough knowledge) to really delve into it. I'm looking forward to following your efforts and wish you luck!
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #150970
- Ignore mahkoh |
2/28/2020 5:59:53 AM
Isn't it a lot easier to act upon what has happened than trying to predict what will happen? IB usually has short available for multiday runners, Tradezero has them definitely.
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nibor100
1,010 posts
msg #150975
- Ignore nibor100 |
2/28/2020 8:56:41 AM
@mahkoh,
If your post was directed at me, I had indicated in my Exploring thread that I don't short stocks.
My goal is to get a filler that will allow me/us to act on the long side based on what has recently happened just the same as is being done on the short side.
V.E. pointed out that "many of which move dramatically in a single day to trip the filter" yet his filter uses a 5 day lookback period, which I'm assuming resulted from observation, backtesting and paper trading;.and even then it is kind of "predicting" a 100% of the time for a result that is only occurring ~75% of the time with V.E.s careful picking of final candidates to short. (which is another knowledge/skill I don't yet have.
Plus I like a challenge...
Thanks,
Ed S.
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Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150981
- Ignore Cheese |
2/28/2020 10:15:34 AM
Ed S nibor100
Your Guppy separation filter can be found here:
https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/General-Discussion/Guppy-Investigations/144783/-1/144836
I am pretty sure that your exploring project will be successful.
Thanks for sharing your talents.
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #151002
- Ignore mahkoh
modified |
2/29/2020 11:41:54 AM
Nibor,
No problem. Was just wondering what led you to explore the hard road while the easy road is so obvious.
I assume you do not have moral issues shorting these names. For the bulk of them the business model is robbing investors by dilution.
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Village Elder
231 posts
msg #151039
- Ignore Village Elder |
3/2/2020 3:09:49 PM
Ed:
I am not picking stocks from the filter, except to exclude ones that I just finished trading profitably that are still above the roc(5,1) = 50 line, or those that pop up due to an acquisition. Nothing I am doing is anything that anyone else couldn't do.
As for trying to turn this into a long trade filter, I again would caution you that this was never designed to do that, and my guess is that it will bear little or no fruit regardless of how well you try to tend the garden.
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #151043
- Ignore KSK8 |
3/2/2020 5:47:37 PM
A long version of the shorting system will never be successfully created that ends up matching its performance.
I've compiled a list of reasons why the shorting systems work extremely well and why a bullish version of it is impossible to be replicated. When penny stocks experience a huge move up, this why their price often reverses/crashes/plunges:
-Companies exploit their overvaluation by using their stock as currency to purchase less overvalued firms (via dilution)
-Bagholders (previously in losing positions) decide to take their profit and run
-Daytraders who took advantage of the parabolic price early are selling their profits
-Short-sellers taking advantage of the overextension by shorting the stock
-Pump & Dumps
-Panic selling is a thing, and it's very frequent when stocks start to crack after a huge move up
-Arbitrage operations involving convertible bonds, options, pending mergers
These are why a majority of penny stocks that experience an unusual surge in price typically will endure a retracement back to where it started. The lower the shares outstanding, the more of an impact these factors can have on the price, hence why larger companies won't exhibit these behaviors.
As someone who has spent a good deal of time with shorting penny stocks, I strongly doubt any effort to find an inverse for the long side will actually work and perform identically to the shorting systems.
I do acknowledge the aspiration for a long version of the shorting systems considering shorting is more dangerous than buying (especially with volatile securities like these ones), but a bullish version of these filters are merely impossible to be created and perform identically.
It's best to continue focusing on improving it rather than seeking an impossible alternative.
-Just my 2 cents from a trader who shorts penny stocks for a living
KSK8
p.s. I am a fan of the innovation behind Village Elder's shorting system, so I would indeed advocate for more to be made regarding it. I might even pitch in.
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Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #151049
- Ignore Cheese |
3/2/2020 11:14:01 PM
Ed S nibor100,
Think British SAS in the Falklands War.
Think SCAMPER S.C.A.M.P.E.R.
You can do it.
Don't give up here
Good luck
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